Month: May 2024

This is a very valuable overview of Gwadar’s development as part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Some excerpts:

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Gwadar processes almost no cargo that could generate income for Pakistan — or, for that matter, for the Chinese operating company. And it’s no wonder: Gwadar is operating at very limited capacity. The port’s three berths, where loading and unloading takes place, can handle 137,000 standard 20-foot shipping containers per year. In contrast, Karachi and its 33 berths can handle the equivalent of 4.2 million 20-foot containers per year.

While ports like Kribi or Lekki are comparatively small, they outshine Gwadar, the supposed new centerpiece of trade for South and Central Asia. . . .

Mardell and Khalid said that behind the scenes, both Pakistan and China have become disillusioned with the project.

“Jobs promises were not met. Industrial promises were not met. The business opportunities for Pakistanis were not met,” said Khalid. “They [China] promised nine special economic zones. Not one is fully functional to date.” . . ..

Still, countries like Pakistan are now stuck paying back large amounts of debt to Chinese lenders. “Pakistan has to pay billions of dollars back in loans, because of reckless investments in the name of CPEC,” said Khalid.”

For readers interested in Indian foreign policy, there is a growing array of valuable books. I recently read former Indian foreign secretary (and current IR professor!) Shivshankar Menon’s book India and Asian Geopolitics: Past, Present. I thought it was fantastic – really embeds India’s experience in the broader politics of Asia, presents an Indian perspective but does so in a very balanced way rather than cheerleading, and covers a remarkably wide range of topics and regions.

It’s also what I consider the best second-book-to-read on Indian FP. It assumes a certain amount of knowledge of Indian history, from the Emergency in the 1970s to balance of payments crises and the details of various wars and crises. Read something like Alyssa Ayres’ Our Time Has Come, Sumit Ganguly’s Indian Foreign Policy, or, for a broader overview, Ram Guha’s India After Gandhi first to get some basics down, and read Menon’s book next. And from there you can pursue more specialized books on a vast, ever-growing number of topics.

I have a new article out in Foreign Affairs on US strategy for competing over Asia’s “swing states” that draws on my current book project. (caveat: I didn’t choose the headline or sub-headings, which are a bit different than the actual argument, so please read the piece!). Some extracts below:

“Although China is undoubtedly more influential than it was three decades ago, the bulk of Asia’s states are not at risk of falling under China’s sway. Asian countries now boast complex and autonomous domestic politics that do not align neatly with either Chinese or U.S. priorities. At times, these countries are indeed gripped by internal debates about whether to align with China or the U.S. and its partners. But just as often, that debate is secondary or even irrelevant compared with these countries’ more pressing internal challenges and foreign policy goals. . . .

Asian countries’ politics and interests also do not map seamlessly onto the Biden administration’s autocracy-versus-democracy framing. Neither the Marxist-Leninist party-state model nor liberal democracy is clearly on the march in the region. Indeed, many regional states believe they can successfully balance ties with both sides as they forge their own forms of domestic politics. . . .

Washington will be most effective when it approaches Asia’s swing states as they are: complicated and autonomous countries, not pieces on a chessboard maneuvered by Beijing and Washington.”