2 open access article

Two of my recent-ish articles are now ungated and available to read to those without university library access:

  1. With the remarkably wonderful coauthors Asfandyar Mir and Tamar Mitts, “Political Coalitions and Social Media: Evidence from Pakistan,” Perspectives on Politics (FirstView): “Social media is frequently an arena of intense competition among major political actors across the world. We argue that a fruitful way of understanding this competition is as coalitions among key actors and their networks of followers. These coalitions can both advance a shared political message and target mutual rivals. Importantly, coalitions can be tacit or explicit, and they do not necessarily depend on direct state manipulation or repression, although they often do. This makes a coalitional framework particularly valuable for studying complex political environments in which online actors blend cooperation and competition. Empirically, we show the value of this approach with novel data collection and analysis of Twitter and Facebook content from 2018–19 in Pakistan, with a focus on the dynamics leading up to and following the controversial 2018 general election. We map out networks of narrative alignment and conflict on Pakistani social media, providing important insights into the relationships among the major political parties, military, media, and dissidents. Future research can fruitfully explore the causes and effects of powerful social media coalitions.”
  2. Leftist Insurgency in Democracies,Comparative Political Studies (2021): “Leftist insurgency has been a major form of civil war since 1945. Existing research on revolution has linked leftist rebellions to authoritarianism or blocked democratization. This research overlooks the onset of leftist insurgencies in a number of democracies. This paper theorizes the roots of this distinctive form of civil war, arguing that democracy shapes how these insurgencies begin, acting as a double-edged sword that simultaneously blocks the emergence of a revolutionary coalition and triggers intra-left splits that breed radical splinters. Leftist revolts can thus emerge during “incorporation windows” that trigger disputes within a divided left over electoral co-optation. Empirically, the paper studies all cases of leftist insurgency in southern Asia since 1945, under both autocracy and democracy, as well as a set of non-onset cases. It offers a new direction for understanding varieties of revolutionary mobilization, highlighting ideology, intra-left debate, and the multi-faceted effects of democracy on conflict.”

New public opinion survey on India/IR

Clary, Lalwani, and Siddiqui with an important new survey on Indian views of foreign policy issues; Confidence and Nationalism in Modi’s India:

“A new 7000-person survey conducted by phone in India between April 13 and May 14, 2022, finds: 

  • high levels of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who likely remains among the most popular national leaders in the world today; 
  • extraordinary nationalist sentiment among Indians, at high levels compared to prior cross-national surveys using identical question wording; 
  • troubling signs of intolerance toward India’s large Muslim minority, which helps provide context to recent controversies;  
  • strong confidence in the Indian government’s ability to defend India against potential domestic and foreign threats;  
  • expectations among a majority of Indian respondents that the U.S. military would support India in the event of a war with China or Pakistan; and 
  • large majorities in favor of Indian numerical nuclear superiority against its adversaries.”