Good David Mathieson piece on the military’s collapse in northern Myanmar:
“In a season of stunning military victories for Myanmar’s anti-military revolutionary forces, the capture of the Northern Shan State city of Lashio and the headquarters of the North-East Command is arguably the most significant. Troops of the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and smaller ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) entered the city several days ago and claimed to have captured the command base and most of the city. It was another remarkable gain from the late-June resumption of Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA) of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. . . .
The military regime, the State Administration Council (SAC), has suffered a string of major military defeats over the past month. One of the other members of the 3BA, the Ta-ang National Liberation (TNLA), has also captured the major gem mining town of Mogok, and in recent days nearby Mong Mit in Shan State. These gains effectively render all of Northern Shan State under the occupation of the anti-SAC resistance. Southwest of Mogok, the 3BA allies the Mandalay People’s Defense Force have attacked military bases in Madaya Township fewer than 60 km from the major city of Mandalay. The fall of Lashio is a major development, but must be cast in the broader context of a collapsing military in multiple locations around Myanmar. . . .
The fighting has had a devastating impact on the civilian population. Tens of thousands of residents fled the city as the siege intensified, with traffic jams on roads headed to Mandalay and to the Shan state capital of Taunngyi. This adds to the large number of internally displaced persons in the north, and will exacerbate an already dire economic situation of scarce consumer goods and hyper-inflation of rice and fuel. The SAC is also using punitive airstrikes, artillery, and UAV ‘drop bomb’ strikes on civilian targets captured by the Brotherhood. There has already been considerable damage to many towns and infrastructure, and it’s not yet clear if Lashio will be spared or pulverized. The presence of Wa troops may well be a signal to the SAC to refrain from retaliatory strikes.
There is speculation that the 3BA will be reined in by China, who brokered a ‘peace deal’ called the Haigeng Agreement back in January and have reportedly summoned the group’s leaders and SAC representatives to meet in Kunming in the coming days. The MNDAA claimed to have paused fighting at one point in July as the Chinese Communist Party Third Plenary session was held in Beijing, but there was little evidence of this. Perspectives of Operation 1027 may have to revisit assumptions of Chinese influence and intent and the questionable assertion that Chinese policy is pro-SAC. If Beijing was displeased with the renewed fighting they appear to have little assertive power over the regime or the resistance. The realpolitik for China is that it will be compelled to deal with multiple revolutionary forces in this strategic trade corridor from the border to Mandalay, as the SAC collapses in the north.”
Paul Staniland 