Month: September 2025

For those trying to figure out what just happened in Nepal, a few of (a great many, and more to come) excellent explainers are here:

1. Akhilesh Upadhyay in the Hindustan Times: “Nepal’s uncertain course after Gen Z’s protests”
2. Pranaya Rana in Himal (and also his Substack): “Nepal’s staggering journey from Gen Z protests to new government”
3. Mahesh Kushwaha in the Indian Express: “The many revolutions that have shaped Nepal”
4. Uzair Younus interviews Ashish Pradhan on Pakistonomy (YouTube)

I also have a piece out in Journal of Democracy seeking to identify four preliminary insights from protests leading to the collapse of governments in 2025 Nepal, 2024 Bangladesh, and 2022 Sri Lanka (acknowledging that there are also big differences across them). A preview of the takeaways is below:
1. “organizationally amorphous, decentralized movements have proven to be remarkably potent tools against political establishments that lack legitimacy and whose governing institutions and ruling political parties have been hollowed out by patronage and personalism”
2. “Elections are necessary but not sufficient to reform a political system, though there is little clarity or consensus on what is needed in addition to voting. . . it is not always obvious what form the new democratic order should take for each of these protest movements”
3. “militaries have shown that they are crucially important political players. . . once militaries become a crucial force in political life, it will be difficult to get them fully back into the barracks”
4. “all three cases show how quickly internal political changes can unsettle international politics. . .forcing major powers such as China and India — which, despite their considerable influence, are often unable to control their neighbors’ domestic politics”

ISP-Myanmar just published a very valuable report, Prospective 4th-Generation Tatmadaw: Pathways to Reform or Further Regression? It offers a useful timeline and mapping of the dramatic events of November 2023-April 2024, during which the military took serious losses and armed groups made important gains, while also showing data on the stabilization and recovery since then. I further learned a lot from their mapping of the current military elite in Myanmar – who holds what positions and ranks, their ages, and who might be the next level of commanders.

This kind of “micro-level military politics” is an enduring interest of mine (i.e. this article on Pakistan I wrote with Naseemullah and Butt) but requires enormous time and detailed contextual knowledge/date that most political scientists simply don’t have. Check out the whole report.