Author: pstaniland

From SIPRI’s regular updates on arms transfers:

“Asia and Oceania still the top importing region

Asia and Oceania received 41 per cent of major arms transfers in 2018–22, a slightly smaller share than in 2013–17. Despite the overall decline in transfers to the region, there were marked increases in some states, and marked decreases in others. Six states in the region were among the 10 largest importers globally in 2018–22: India, Australia, China, South Korea, Pakistan and Japan. 

Arms imports by East Asian states increased by 21 per cent between 2013–17 and 2018–22. Arms imports by China rose by 4.1 per cent, with most coming from Russia. However, the biggest increases in East Asia were by US treaty allies South Korea (+61 per cent) and Japan (+171 per cent). Australia, the largest arms importer in Oceania, increased its imports by 23 per cent.

‘Growing perceptions of threats from China and North Korea have driven rising demand for arms imports by Japan, South Korea and Australia, notably including for long-range strike weapons,’ said Siemon T. Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘The main supplier for all three is the USA.’

India remains the world’s top arms importer, but its arms imports declined by 11 per cent between 2013–17 and 2018–22. This decline was linked to a complex procurement process, efforts to diversify arms suppliers and attempts to replace imports with local designs. Imports by Pakistan, the world’s eighth largest arms importer in 2018–22, increased by 14 per cent, with China as its main supplier.”

This is a really interesting Lowy Institute piece by Evan Laksmana. Important points for US-based analysts to keep in mind, with relevance to a number of other South and Southeast Asian states:

“Indonesia is unlikely to view the United States as a benevolent provider of regional security in the way Australia does. Indonesia’s troubled past with the United States – and its geo-strategic vulnerability and domestic fragility – means that Jakarta will from time to time view the United States as another interventionist great power. Senior policymakers still recite how the United States kicked Indonesia while it was down during the Asian financial crisis, or how the disastrous Iraq War and the non-ratification of the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea undermined the rules-based order.

Defence policymakers privately cite instances where the United States was seen as intruding into Indonesian airspace as one of the rationales for Indonesian defence modernisation. The prospect in 2019 of the US sanctioning Indonesia under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) as the country was finalising its purchase of Russian arms brought back the bitter experience of the US military embargo in the 1990s and 2000s. Cold War memories, of US support for regional rebels in the 1950s, have not faded either.

Despite this history, Indonesia-US defence ties remain strong. In the past two decades, more than 7,300 Indonesian students trained in some 200 different US military education and training programs. Indonesia has held more than 100 major military exercises with the United States and imported close to $1 billion in arms and equipment.

But stronger defence ties do not necessarily correspond or lead to “further alignment”, as was implied in a meeting between the US and Indonesian defence ministers late last year. Defence cooperation with the United States may fulfil specific needs – from professional readiness to modern arms – but Jakarta does not always see American military presence as a net positive, nor will it accept that its security can only be guaranteed by it.”

I’ve reviewed and blurbed several books in the last few months. They’re all excellent – very different from one another while grappling with a set of fundamental questions around order and violence. Check them out:

A grim BBC report on a bombing in Sagaing, only the most recent of a sequence of bloody air attacks by the Myanmar military:

“Residents uploaded video showing scenes of appalling carnage, with dismembered bodies lying on the ground and several buildings on fire.

“Please call out if you are still alive, we are coming to help you,” they can he heard shouting as they walked through Pa Zi Gyi looking for victims of the attack.

They said that they tried to count the bodies, but that this was difficult because so many were in pieces, scattered among shredded clothing and burned motorbikes.

Pa Zi Gyi had been packed with people from nearby communities attending a ceremony to mark the opening of a new People’s Defence Forces (PDF) office.”

A deep dive by John Reed in the FT; telling details:
“most did not want to be quoted or even meet in person for fear of attracting the attention of Bangladesh’s security services or causing trouble for their co-workers. . . telling me through an aide that it would be too risky to speak to an international newspaper. . . . the polite consular official asked me to focus on “positive” stories”

Asheville is absolutely gorgeous.