This a much longer piece than the Rohingya one, and was just published in the Washington Quarterly (link is to an ungated PDF). The piece examines how fifteen powerful insurgent groups in South Asia dealt with clear military decline, and uses the comparative findings to generate some insights about possible ISIS trajectories.
The article is based on my “armed politics” book project, data collection efforts, and related articles. But I wanted to get something out faster than going through the academic review process, while having more heft and staying power than a blog post or op-ed. The Washington Quarterly was a perfect outlet – it allowed footnotes and a decently long piece, appeals to an analytical policy audience plus policy-interested academics, and offers articles that are free until the next issue comes out. Go check it out.