Whenever I teach my PLSC 26800 class (originally “Insurgency, Terrorism, and Civil War” and now “Political Violence”), I wander over to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Peace Research Institute of Oslo websites to update my slides on trends in armed conflict. UCDP has particularly useful maps and graphs.
This year, PRIO has published a very valuable report that summarizes trends in armed conflict and battle-related deaths. Looking at its summary of battle-related deaths since 1989 and 1946 (see both figures below), we can see a lull in the 2001-2011 period that is quite striking. At the time – with 9/11, the Iraq war, etc – it certainly didn’t feel that way, but it now appears to have been the most peaceful period of the post-Cold War era by quite a margin.
Their (grim) conclusion:
“This PRIO Paper confirms that the level of violence is increasing, that this now is part of a longer trend and not just a peak, and that a new, higher baseline of global violence has emerged. 2025 was the third most deadly year since the end of the Cold War, and we see that the period post 2013 has overall been more violent than the period prior to 2013 during the Cold War era”
Paul Staniland 